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Theme: Climate and Reproductive Biology

Flowering Tabebuia sp. in the forest after a rainfall cue

Changing climate, including the increasing unpredictability of climatic extremes, is providing a continual threat to plant biodiversity (1), with the significant impacts predicted in many regions, including Africa, Southern Asia (including China) and Australia (2). Moreover, at the habitat, rather than geographic, level there is specific concern that climate change is making forest areas increasingly susceptible to invasion by alien species (1). The accuracy (or certainty) of these scenarios becoming reality depends on the quality of the models used and Defra is working with Dfid (3) to improve environmental monitoring and analysis. In addition, the GSPC has highlighted the need for the ‘development of models with protocols for plant conservation’, for example in relation to the ‘maintenance of plants within an ecosystem’ (4). The MSBP (within RBG Kew; 5) is well placed to contribute to an improved understanding of the potential impact of climate change on species distribution in the drylands of many countries through: analysis of existing herbarium records and production of plant collecting guides in support of the development of more ‘reference ecosystems’ (6). Such survey and inventory work will generate target lists that will inform collecting strategies in relation to endangered, endemic and socio-economically valued plants and could be used to develop ‘vulnerability models’ for various species (1, 5). Species vulnerability will depend to certain extent on the species reproductive biology (see S&T sector 2), including the response of seed traits to the environment. Maternal environment is already recognised as a major driver for seed quality traits (seed size, germinability, chemical content, etc), and the timing of seed harvest. Thus, within season and between season field-based studies on seed will offer an insight into the likely seed performance under changing environmental conditions, particularly when specific climate patterns are used / measured rather than mean conditions (1, 5).

Significant achievements (2001-2005)

·        Revealed temperature as a determinant of seed development in two species across continental Europe (from cool to hot).

·        Developed a predictive model for seed desiccation tolerance in African trees using local rainfall and seed mass.

·        Edited a major ecological survey of Zambia.

·        Applied GIS to targeted collecting and species distribution predictions in relation to climate.

·        Modelled the importance of equal-area analysis to species richness data.

·        Investigated seed development in two African tree / shrubs, started writing a tree seed calendar for Tanzania, and characterised the reproductive biology of an endangered medicinal tree.

·        Started a PhD on maternal environment and seed quality (with Queensland Australia).

·        Assessed how seed traits allow adaptation of Veronica sp. to local sites across low temperature clines.

Projects on this theme:

• Interactions between Climate and Plant Species Function and Distribution for Recalcitrant Seeded Taxa
• Jumping Seed Storage Types: Effect of Developmental Heat Sum at Continental Scales on the Seed Desiccation Tolerance Trait
• Maternal Environment and Provenance Effects on Seed Longevity
• Maternal Environment Effects on Seed Germination and Dormancy
• Seed Responses to Climate Change and Environmental Extremes
• Unwelcome Guests? The Seed Biology of Invasive Species

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