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Digital Ecosystem for Extinction Risk Assessment (DEERA)

Geographical range data for Paphiopedilum vietnamense (Orchidaceae) was used for modelling

Following the 2002 World Summit, the Convention of Biological Diversity has called for a decrease in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. However, a 2003 UK Royal Society report on 'Measuring Biodiversity for Conservation' discussed the unavailability of satisfactory measures of biodiversity and the difficulty of reporting accurately on the loss of biodiversity by 2010. The difficulty is not just one of measuring rate of change of biodiversity. Perhaps even more importantly, we need to be able to obtain reliable measures of extinction risk to prioritise where to focus interventions to most effectively reduce the rate of biodiversity loss. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) defined a set of categories for conservation status supported by decision rules based on thresholds of parameters. These rules have received international acceptance and have become one of the most important decision-making tools in conservation biology. However, these categories often require large amounts of data and, in particular, extensive fieldwork.  Most species are, however, only known from a 'handful' of sighting records, such as in specimen-based collections. These records provide information on the distribution of taxa through time and space, and represent primary, verifiable observations. This allows us to study two specific aspects of species’ biology, firstly changes in abundance over time and secondly the actual geographical range of a species. These can then be combined to study the change in a species’ range over time. In addition, there is a growing demand for such resources to be provided over the internet because their usefulness is related to their accessibility.

This project aims to place the quantification of extinction risk on a scientific basis by providing a link from specimen databases, both online and in-house, through statistically rigorous methods of calculating various aspects of threat and rarity, to eventually generate IUCN classifications. This will involve compiling a dataset with which to test the various methods developed over a period of four years to aid the 2010 target. Such a dataset can be constructed rapidly from the specimens in the Herbarium at RBG Kew and in-house and online specialist databases. One potential strategy is to assess those species that collectively best represent global diversity patterns. The family pairing of Orchidaceae and Gramineae has been show to have the highest correlation coefficient with global genetic diversity (r_s = 0.973).  

Specific aims are:

1.      Ensuring the uncertainties in the risk assessment are made explicit;

2.      Basing the risk assessments on sound statistical methods;

3.      Developing a community for sharing and exchanging statistical models and data to support deployment of those models;

4.      Developing a community for sharing, exchanging and improving software that implements the risk assessment models.

The last point pays specific reference to the steady growth of the open-source software movement, in which software is developed by and for a community of users. This ensures that the software is developed to meet scientific needs of the community and is not constrained by commercial considerations.

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