Climate Change Induced Temporal and Spatial Shift Asynchrony in Orchid-Pollinator Interactions
Ophrys ferum-equinum (Orchidaceae)
Global warming is altering the timing of important developmental or behavioural events. Changes in species’ ranges and trophic relationships in response to climate warming affect their interactions. Phenological changes alter population-level interactions and community dynamics, and have profound ecosystem and evolutionary consequences. One of the more immediate effects could arise from a breakdown in evolved synchronicities. In order to predict future responses of species to climate change, it is important to understand how the species have responded to climate in the past. However, a prerequisite is the availability of long-term datasets, which are often scarce. Biological collections, with an estimated 2.5 billion specimens going back over 300 years, have a huge potential to contribute to studies on climate change. Built directly on current taxonomic expertise, specimen-based records provide verifiable information on the distribution of taxa through space and time.
One particular problem is to estimate the boundary of the range of the species and to test for a shift over time in this boundary (e.g. north-south, east-west). Range boundaries are one of the most important pieces of information in all protocols for assessing the conservation status of species. The aims of this project are to develop statistical methods and apply them to the following questions: (i) What are the limits of the geographical and phenological range of a species? (ii) Have these limits changed over time? The project will consider both the case in which the boundary is one-dimensional (e.g. latitudinal) and the case in which the boundary is two-dimensional. Of course, even when interest focuses on the latitudinal, the observations themselves will be made in two dimensions. These two-dimensional locations are then converted into one-dimensional observations by retaining only their projections along the orientation of interest (e.g. north-south). Further, a third phenological dimension may be added in the form of peak flowering time, which may be compared with peak flight time of pollinating insects. This will result in a sphere of occurrence for orchid and pollinator.
The project will study the spatial and temporal shifts of species and compare the results with other organisms with which they interact with e.g. plant-pollinator. The programme will use data from biological collections and other biological records. Any change will be evaluated in relation to its known biology i.e. the specificity and symmetry of the interaction. In the first instance British orchid-pollinator interactions will be considered, however the study will be extended to study other regions of the world, in particular, the Mediterranean habitats of South Africa and Australia where the interactions are highly specific and long colonial records exist and ecology.
Project Team
Project Leader: Roberts, Dave
Herbarium
David Roberts
Project Partners and Collaborators
UK
University of East Anglia
USA
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute